AI Impact 2020 – 2075

Impact of AI between 2020 and 2075

A Possible Impact of Artificial Intelligence on our global society
Technological – Business-wise – Societal

The era of AMs – Autonomous Machines

2020 – 2025 Impact

Given our today’s rapid development, we may see a significant rise in numbers of AI based products, mainly high performance chat bots. Chat Bots or generally speaking digital information services, entering our day to day world in sales replacing call centers, marketing replacing outbound marketing, support centers and all kinds of information services. At the same time the work on so called “General AI”, meaning more universally usable AI, will be intensified and we are getting better and better results – yet no real products – despite the rapid development.

Ref IBM - knowledge explosion - Impact with AI

Ref: IBM

The business impact will be substantial because access to knowledge will span all industries and will be substantially easier as conventional text search. Search engines will be either UI-less (meaning no keyboard, mouse, looking through lists but you speak to mic anywhere) Obviously the advertising based business model will be the biggest road block and call new and creative startups to attack.
Just for reference: in 1900 knowledge was doubling every century, 1945 knowledge was doubling every 25 years, 1883 knowledge doubling every year – now approximately every day.
The societal impact will begin to bring a dark cloud. The start of significant unemployment in all kinds of call centers, info centers, support centers and any information services organization. And very quickly it will reach many types of knowledge transfer and education institution.
Science Fiction movies may become rarer. Our development is faster than a movie maker can write a script, produce the movie and bring it to market. Ex-Machina II may possibly still not come out ;)

2025 – 2030 Impact

Technology development towards general AI will be in full swing but not yet really mainstream. Millions of engineers from around the globe will work on AI solutions. That includes Universal AI, multi purpose AI, single purpose AI. AIPU s (artificial intelligent processing units) will become more widely available. New Memory systems may arise. With that I mean silicon embedded intelligence to address memory content. There was a technology developed called “Content Addressed Memory” that may come to new life – now there may be a need for it.
The number of AMs (Autonomous Machines) such as AI Based self driving cars, AI based autonomous robots, AI based autonomous devices, AI based autonomous computers will rise significantly. By then everybody will sell their products with AI-Based XYZ. AI is like Internet in 1998. Widely used but still not fully developed. But everything will include AI one way or the other.
The unemployment rate will rise to very uncomfortable 100+ Million across the globe.

Makers Movement - AI Impact on human engagement freedom

Ref: Makers movement – Makersmedia.com

It is a very critical development where governments will start to TAX AMs in order to finance unemployment aid. Unemployed will most likely not be able to find a new job. It’s when the wider public understands that AI is different to any other new technology: AI is not even a new technology but used to make machines autonomous – rather then needing new human skills to use the new technology. AI is basically  software, microprocessors, robots, cars – nothing that we did not have 10 years ago, but a completely new way to leverage that existing technology.
As a result, a significant shift in our society will begin. Even with unemployment aid, people will not sit idle at home. The makers movement will explode, social workers, nature-observers and protectors, artists, musicians, coaches and so forth will rise. We will move from “employed humans” to “autonomous humans”. We will grow more self determined across all levels of education and with a higher value to our society, environment and future evolution of humankind. A major societal inflection point may surface. Those who still need to “work” will push the AI development forward, knowing that if their jobs will be replaced, they can – like all the others – do what they really like to do and receive a UBI (Unconditional base income).

2030–2040 Impact

The AMs are substantially advanced. AI development languages and AI operating systems will become a standard in the tech space. Under the development systems the graphical application design tools may dominate as they can be used by pretty much any generally educated business manager. Just pointing and selecting data set sources, algorithms that analyze those data sets, selecting processors (neural networks) to pump it through and so forth. It will be the beginning of broadly available general AI. The number of AI based applications will grow faster and bigger than all conventional software together. The old software world is fading away.
Deep impact of AI on human work and self determined engagementThe number of applications and functionalities leveraging IOT, sensor techniques, and robots will enter into all kinds of industries replacing ever more people. It will now be apparent – also for the last human on earth – that industrial work will be completely eradicated. Industrial unemployment will be raising to over a billion people in the next 10 to 15 years. Whether its office workers or manufacturing workers, AMs will take over the jobs. Everybody who is working on repetitive products or services can be replaced by an AM. Artists, will still keep creating Art any creative work that creates a unique ‘thing’ will obviously not be replaced because it would simply make no sense and cost too much. Those AMs work 3 times as long (8 versus 24 hours), no social cost, no vacation. Unemployment aid will at the very latest now become an unconditional base income for everybody, funded by the earlier implemented Value added AM tax. Autonomous Humans will now become the majority.
We also reached another interesting inflection point. Product costs are no longer determined by the amount of labor cost – back to raw material cost based pricing. But the raw material may actually sooner or later come from other planets. Science Fiction? No – this is now becoming reality. Not only because we understand that renewable ENERGY is limited but also recyclable MATERIAL is not infinitely available on earth. A billion cars with Lithium Batteries would require more Lithium after the first few replacement than we have on earth.

2040 – 2050 Impact

AI Impact on Human understanding of ourselvesThe AMs will evolve further, write complex algorithms themselves, beyond our own capabilities, create structures and construct products beyond our intellectual capacity. Humans, however, will also evolve further and deeper than we can imagine today, in 2018. Our brain will have more capacity for creativity because we will no longer need to remember when King Ramses built his empire, who his father was and so fort. We have that knowledge in our extended, collective, connected technical brain. Internet connection is omnipresent and guaranteed on every square inch on land or water on earth. Mass products in any way or shape can be constructed, prepared and produced by AMs. Only the decision, what we actually want to create, will still be coming from the human mind. And latest by then we will bring forward real self aware AMs (if not much earlier). There are many people including me working on self conscious AI concepts already. Yet even self aware AMs are far away from the human brain capabilities. The AI research will help us better understand what we are actually capable of. We will learn more about ourselves in these 10 years than in all the 300,000 years before. The human mind’s creativity is so complex that AI is still very far away from coming even close to it. We will have a far deeper understanding of the human mind than just our intelligence. We will understand that intelligence is just one power of our mind, similar to our power to move, the power of our muscles and the power of our orientation – which we have all augmented already some hundreds of years ago. We will understand artificial intelligence is no more than our artificial muscles, which we call tools.

2050 – 2075 Impact

AI impact on amplifying Terraforming and planet harvesting

Ref. NASA

Leveraging our added skills, collective knowledge our amazing machines, scientists will be replaced by those machines as well. Testing something new and prove a repetitive behavior to make it a scientifically proven fact, is much better done by an AI system than by a Ph.D. ‘system’. Science will be done by AMs across all factions. At the same time, innovative and creative ideas will explode, AM’s will analyze and verify those ideas in no time. AM owners will compete for those crazy but verified ideas and build it. AMs will help revitalize space exploration in a new and rather meaningful way. We will need other places than earth to harvest raw material and we need other planets for recycling or wast disposal. NASA stated: The next era will relay on robots. AMs, powered by solar energy are the best “people” to send to other planets or our moon to extract, produce, recycle, deposit. We don’t even need to terraform Mars for that. But we may safe Mars for exploring Terraforming together with AMs. Autonomous Machines and Autonomous Humans will build the most powerful synergy ever built. We will be depending on AI, more than on any other technology built so far. Most technology can be replaced by something else. But an AI system that can iterate through millions of ideas for any given solution in a few hours or days is something not only beyond what we built but beyond ourselves. And of course, we can always go back to our caves :)

Benefits of conscious Autonomous Machines

There was a great question on Quora:

What would be the benefits if computers/robots would be conscious? Would they learn better and become more intelligent? Would they become truly creative and inventive? Would they surpass humans in certain fields?

This was my answer:

What would be the benefit if AM’s are conscious?
1) We will find out, and learn more about consciousness as we know today.
2) The understanding of what our human consciousness actually is and where it resides is still discussed very controversial. Therefor even more reason to try.
While abstracting the question, one benefit will be the aspect of innovation.
Once conscious, it could wonder: what could be improved and then in which way and then in what order.

Would AM’s learn better / become more intelligent?
Yes they would learn better because they can put things into perspective of their own observation. However it may also be a disadvantage as the own observation and recognition of the world is now subjective. We will need to work on both aspects. They would not get more “intelligent” because the intelligence is mainly provided by the algorithms and the neural networks. But “self corrective” actions could be triggered by self awareness and change the algorithm. If we want that – not so sure – here is a danger involved. So we still learn.

Would AM’s become truly creative?
We will learn more about creativity when we build first self aware AMs. Creativity is perceived as an act of “creation” even though humans cannot create anything that does not exist in any way or shape. But a unique picture that is very abstract maybe considered creative and a general AI system can do that with or without consciousness. Also here we will learn a lot about creativity and our ability or disability. The disability to be truly creative maybe a natural roadblock for getting us to far.

Would AM’s become innovative?
In our mind innovative is a type of creative with a purpose of significant improvement to a situation. In the context of AMs this is of particular interest. I feel an AM could improve itself without being self aware by virtue of checks and balances and try to improve its own behavior. But being self-aware an AM can build the differential between its own benefits and the benefits to other things or beings. Our own innovative thinking is wired in a way that we create innovation for others and maybe not for ourselves. Our benefit may come however from selling those innovative solutions. So Innovation may be the most interesting benefit from a conscious AM. Given the speed those machines can iterate through millions of scenarios we may see innovative improvements for all of us far beyond our imagination today. This maybe the biggest advancement for humankind by AMs in general.

Would self-aware AM’s be able to surpass humans in certain fields?
AI in general is surpassing humans in certain fields. The cranes we built is surpassing the human ability to lift things, the submarines we built is surpassing our ability to dive, the homes we built is surpassing our own ability to keep us warm…

Only once we built the ‘humanly’ best possible AM, we can start competition between human and machine. It will very quickly be apparent that our energy consumption is by order of magnitude less than of today’s even best imaginable AM. Our physical versatility is still far far ahead of any machine. Our creativity is still absolutely superior given that we need only 1.5 Kilo brain that we can carry anywhere without any connection to a central brain, and on and on it goes.

Remember? The first train ever built was considered deadly if it can go faster than 20 miles an hour because our organ’s wouldn’t withstand higher speed. Today we do 10 times and can’t wait to do 100 times and fly to the moon even faster. AMs are the trains of the late 1800’s we will keep up with them and learn so much about us that it will keep us busy to emulate all of our capabilities and then realize that we do all of that, just in a different form since 300,000 years, putting our children into this world and since 200 years raising our staff to the next level.