AI Impact 2020 – 2075

Impact of AI between 2020 and 2075

A Possible Impact of Artificial Intelligence on our global society
Technological – Business-wise – Societal

The era of AMs – Autonomous Machines

2020 – 2025 Impact

Given our today’s rapid development, we may see a significant rise in numbers of AI based products, mainly high performance chat bots. Chat Bots or generally speaking digital information services, entering our day to day world in sales replacing call centers, marketing replacing outbound marketing, support centers and all kinds of information services. At the same time the work on so called “General AI”, meaning more universally usable AI, will be intensified and we are getting better and better results – yet no real products – despite the rapid development.

Ref IBM - knowledge explosion - Impact with AI

Ref: IBM

The business impact will be substantial because access to knowledge will span all industries and will be substantially easier as conventional text search. Search engines will be either UI-less (meaning no keyboard, mouse, looking through lists but you speak to mic anywhere) Obviously the advertising based business model will be the biggest road block and call new and creative startups to attack.
Just for reference: in 1900 knowledge was doubling every century, 1945 knowledge was doubling every 25 years, 1883 knowledge doubling every year – now approximately every day.
The societal impact will begin to bring a dark cloud. The start of significant unemployment in all kinds of call centers, info centers, support centers and any information services organization. And very quickly it will reach many types of knowledge transfer and education institution.
Science Fiction movies may become rarer. Our development is faster than a movie maker can write a script, produce the movie and bring it to market. Ex-Machina II may possibly still not come out ;)

2025 – 2030 Impact

Technology development towards general AI will be in full swing but not yet really mainstream. Millions of engineers from around the globe will work on AI solutions. That includes Universal AI, multi purpose AI, single purpose AI. AIPU s (artificial intelligent processing units) will become more widely available. New Memory systems may arise. With that I mean silicon embedded intelligence to address memory content. There was a technology developed called “Content Addressed Memory” that may come to new life – now there may be a need for it.
The number of AMs (Autonomous Machines) such as AI Based self driving cars, AI based autonomous robots, AI based autonomous devices, AI based autonomous computers will rise significantly. By then everybody will sell their products with AI-Based XYZ. AI is like Internet in 1998. Widely used but still not fully developed. But everything will include AI one way or the other.
The unemployment rate will rise to very uncomfortable 100+ Million across the globe.

Makers Movement - AI Impact on human engagement freedom

Ref: Makers movement – Makersmedia.com

It is a very critical development where governments will start to TAX AMs in order to finance unemployment aid. Unemployed will most likely not be able to find a new job. It’s when the wider public understands that AI is different to any other new technology: AI is not even a new technology but used to make machines autonomous – rather then needing new human skills to use the new technology. AI is basically  software, microprocessors, robots, cars – nothing that we did not have 10 years ago, but a completely new way to leverage that existing technology.
As a result, a significant shift in our society will begin. Even with unemployment aid, people will not sit idle at home. The makers movement will explode, social workers, nature-observers and protectors, artists, musicians, coaches and so forth will rise. We will move from “employed humans” to “autonomous humans”. We will grow more self determined across all levels of education and with a higher value to our society, environment and future evolution of humankind. A major societal inflection point may surface. Those who still need to “work” will push the AI development forward, knowing that if their jobs will be replaced, they can – like all the others – do what they really like to do and receive a UBI (Unconditional base income).

2030–2040 Impact

The AMs are substantially advanced. AI development languages and AI operating systems will become a standard in the tech space. Under the development systems the graphical application design tools may dominate as they can be used by pretty much any generally educated business manager. Just pointing and selecting data set sources, algorithms that analyze those data sets, selecting processors (neural networks) to pump it through and so forth. It will be the beginning of broadly available general AI. The number of AI based applications will grow faster and bigger than all conventional software together. The old software world is fading away.
Deep impact of AI on human work and self determined engagementThe number of applications and functionalities leveraging IOT, sensor techniques, and robots will enter into all kinds of industries replacing ever more people. It will now be apparent – also for the last human on earth – that industrial work will be completely eradicated. Industrial unemployment will be raising to over a billion people in the next 10 to 15 years. Whether its office workers or manufacturing workers, AMs will take over the jobs. Everybody who is working on repetitive products or services can be replaced by an AM. Artists, will still keep creating Art any creative work that creates a unique ‘thing’ will obviously not be replaced because it would simply make no sense and cost too much. Those AMs work 3 times as long (8 versus 24 hours), no social cost, no vacation. Unemployment aid will at the very latest now become an unconditional base income for everybody, funded by the earlier implemented Value added AM tax. Autonomous Humans will now become the majority.
We also reached another interesting inflection point. Product costs are no longer determined by the amount of labor cost – back to raw material cost based pricing. But the raw material may actually sooner or later come from other planets. Science Fiction? No – this is now becoming reality. Not only because we understand that renewable ENERGY is limited but also recyclable MATERIAL is not infinitely available on earth. A billion cars with Lithium Batteries would require more Lithium after the first few replacement than we have on earth.

2040 – 2050 Impact

AI Impact on Human understanding of ourselvesThe AMs will evolve further, write complex algorithms themselves, beyond our own capabilities, create structures and construct products beyond our intellectual capacity. Humans, however, will also evolve further and deeper than we can imagine today, in 2018. Our brain will have more capacity for creativity because we will no longer need to remember when King Ramses built his empire, who his father was and so fort. We have that knowledge in our extended, collective, connected technical brain. Internet connection is omnipresent and guaranteed on every square inch on land or water on earth. Mass products in any way or shape can be constructed, prepared and produced by AMs. Only the decision, what we actually want to create, will still be coming from the human mind. And latest by then we will bring forward real self aware AMs (if not much earlier). There are many people including me working on self conscious AI concepts already. Yet even self aware AMs are far away from the human brain capabilities. The AI research will help us better understand what we are actually capable of. We will learn more about ourselves in these 10 years than in all the 300,000 years before. The human mind’s creativity is so complex that AI is still very far away from coming even close to it. We will have a far deeper understanding of the human mind than just our intelligence. We will understand that intelligence is just one power of our mind, similar to our power to move, the power of our muscles and the power of our orientation – which we have all augmented already some hundreds of years ago. We will understand artificial intelligence is no more than our artificial muscles, which we call tools.

2050 – 2075 Impact

AI impact on amplifying Terraforming and planet harvesting

Ref. NASA

Leveraging our added skills, collective knowledge our amazing machines, scientists will be replaced by those machines as well. Testing something new and prove a repetitive behavior to make it a scientifically proven fact, is much better done by an AI system than by a Ph.D. ‘system’. Science will be done by AMs across all factions. At the same time, innovative and creative ideas will explode, AM’s will analyze and verify those ideas in no time. AM owners will compete for those crazy but verified ideas and build it. AMs will help revitalize space exploration in a new and rather meaningful way. We will need other places than earth to harvest raw material and we need other planets for recycling or wast disposal. NASA stated: The next era will relay on robots. AMs, powered by solar energy are the best “people” to send to other planets or our moon to extract, produce, recycle, deposit. We don’t even need to terraform Mars for that. But we may safe Mars for exploring Terraforming together with AMs. Autonomous Machines and Autonomous Humans will build the most powerful synergy ever built. We will be depending on AI, more than on any other technology built so far. Most technology can be replaced by something else. But an AI system that can iterate through millions of ideas for any given solution in a few hours or days is something not only beyond what we built but beyond ourselves. And of course, we can always go back to our caves :)

Autonomous Machines – where are we today? Who may advance the most?

We came a long way in the last 1 and 1/2 years since this amazing video from Maurice Conti was recorded. Artificial Intelligence made huge progress. The hardware however is actually much behind the hopes. Autonomous machines like robots lack the skills to move like humans or animals. Other autonomous machines like cars or ships still lack the all encompassing sensor technology to be truly safe. Autonomous earth bound autonomous machines like chat bots and game computing however show great evolution in their hardware technology.

The software advances are more significant: AlphaGoZero was beating AlphaGo 100 to 0 – meaning the amazing AlphaGo program, which was beating the number one Go player in the world 4:1 was now beaten 100:0 by its next generation AM. The critical part of that story is that it was able to learn everything on its own. Chinese President Xi Jinpen announced his goal to be AI leader by 2030. German Economy & Science departments expressed their desire to make AI made in Germany a globally known quality brand for AI by 2030. Approximately 1.000 times as many regular people on the street became aware of a possible social shift in mankind. grander than anything we experienced or even imagined before. Fear however is spreading at almost alarming rate now – not a place we should be in. But it’s only indirectly the fear from machines. Deep inside our subconsciousness it is the fear of our own miss doing. Not our imperfection but doing things that are simply not right – and doing so in full awareness. Outside the technology and opportunity realm, we began to learn more from the AI development about ourselves than ever before.

How important is technology for AI?

In my work on that subject, I recently had an interesting thought. Mainly when I heard that the two vocal contender China and Germany longing for attention, I asked myself what they have to bring to the party. Today’s AI leader is clearly from California. But is technology really at the core of AI? Yes, we need powerful processors and lots of memory. But AI is no longer really about technology per see. At the core of any AI system are the algorithms, complex mathematical constructs that can describe a behavior, a process, and create results for possible more algorithms. Both Germans and Chinese are pretty good at that. Further more AI is equally dependent (today) on neural network skills. A structure where lots of data get feed in, and spill out results or even directives to other algorithms. Decision making procedures are other skills AI need to employ to create meaningful results. All these skills can be found widely in Germany and Switzerland.

Sooner or later all engineers will notice that no matter how much computing power they have it will never be enough. The game of GO is a great example. The number of possible moves from start to finish is said to exceed the number of atoms in the observable universe. Any AM (Autonomous Machine) will need to calculate its best result or step to a result based on the most probable right step, accepting it may not be the best. AMs need to be FAILURE TOLERANT. With that, an AI system actually gets closer to us humans. I’ve met AI researcher in Taiwan working especially on that part of the process.

But here comes – by far – the most challenging part of AI development that is actually useful for people: What questions do we have to have an AM answer it profoundly and efficient. To make AMs do repeatable jobs like in a production company, or repeatably answer questions, even millions of different questions, from customers in a pre-sales department, or answer questions from patience regarding their possible illness. that is not so complicated. But to answer the question: “How can we help politicians, make the right decisions that are in the interest of the population – and – taking long term effects into consideration?”. Most of us do not (yet) have a firm answer. Most of us, including me can’t even articulate that question comprehensive enough for any system or human to trigger the right solution finding process. Now that is an area where Central Europeans, including Germans are actually pretty good at – maybe better than others.

Artificial Intelligence is more about asking intelligent questions to get intelligent results that putting together fine technology.

While I can continue with a few more aspects of meaningful requirements for a great AM solution, it became very apparent to me that technology keeps taking less and less a center stage position and other, social, psychological, behavioral aspects move rapidly forward. It also daunted on my that there will probably not be a single country doing it all or being the leader – it is a global development where the most open minded and smartest people can jointly produce unprecedented results. Brut force leadership by order of a human leader is most certainly failing – even with 10 billion people. But some of them will contribute amazing solutions to the whole.

Leadership Framework

The World Innovations Forum put a leadership framework together to help all countries to get started and advance. Getting everybody involved makes a lot of sense when it comes to, what is said by some, the last innovation humans will do. Most importantly collaboratively developing and agreeing on a common set of rules will make this development much safer. But maybe we need an AI system to guide us through a process that may otherwise be too much driven by ego and self interest.

What’s next

The development of chat bots is evolving rapidly. From clunky little experiments a few years ago, we see great progress and probably have a highly sufficient “chat bot” by 2022 that is so strong and so versatile that it may replace more than 100 million call center employees with the only replacement of maybe a million people training and advancing those bots. By that time governments will have no other choice to tax the productivity of any AM no matter where those machines are hosted and no matter who owns them. The tax income then can be used to start the concept of a base income for those who won’t find work any soon. A whole taxation model will be available in the new book “Eliminating Work . AI“. By 2025 until 2028 we may be in a position that super advanced chat bots can replace many knowledge base systems including Medical Doctors, Lawyers, Bankers, Insurance Brokers, Inside sales people, cashiers and so forth. This may cause an even bigger avalanche of unemployment that my easily hit over half a billion people world wide. Only several million will be needed to review the medical suggestion, the investment advice etc. But will no longer need a time consuming deep dive. By 2030 robotics may have advance to be much more agile. My ultimate test for a robot would be: Successfully perform in three disciplines: 1) Successfully play soccer in one of the top leagues. 2) Climb Eiger North Face or any similar mountain and return safely to base camp. 3) Dance tango with one of the world class dancers (it takes two to tango). “It takes two to tango” has an inhered interesting aspect: unlike most dances, Tango is lead by both dancers with an unspoken intuition. That will kick start another avalanche of AMs performing tasks that have been conducted by well educated humans. With a constantly improved UBI (Unconditional Base Income) by now it becomes actually a desire to replace as many human jobs as possible and give humans the freedom to pick and chose activities they really love and be so good and social in it that there is no advantage to have robots. There is no advantage to mass produce robots that produce art better than humans can do. Art has no better or worst – Art is a human expression not a robotic mass produced expression, even if every piece would be individual.

Autonomous Humans

By 2040 or 2050, humans will rationalize that during the time of the industrialization, they lost their autonomy. No job – no happy live. If you can’t get into a company where somebody is telling you what to do, you won’t get the reward in cash that you need to survive. Or if you do not perform what is expected from you, you get fired. Not today – but in 100 years we will compare that life with modern slavery. How could it be that you – a free person – has only a few hours a day actually free. At least, unlike in the 1800’s you no longer get beaten up or cut off your hand, but still you call it yourself treadmill, you are very happy if it is 5 pm, you look forward to vacation, you have no or not enough time to do what you really would love to do, you may not even have your dream job, you can’t follow your intuition but the job rules and so forth.

However exactly that ‘YOU’, is the one who helped build a world that eventually transform to a much more liberal life, less dangerous tasks and way more pleasant. So nobody following the rules today is/was stupid. But look for the possible outcome in 30 years from now. Learn everything possible including risks and opportunities about AI and AM and only if you can make an educated decision, judge it – as an hopefully autonomous human.

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